Service Plays Monday 12/6/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick 'n' roll: Monday's best NBA bets


Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks (N/A)

The Minnesota Timberwolves couldn’t do anything wrong in Saturday night’s 129-95 blowout of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Kevin Love put up 28 points and 19 rebounds, while canning a career-best five treys in three quarters worth of work before hitting the bench. The club knocked down a franchise-high 18 3-pointers and made 11 of their first 12 trey attempts to build a 25-point lead with two minutes left in the first half.

Most significantly, they did all of that without leading scorer Michael Beasely, who sprained his ankle Friday against the Spurs and is listed as day-to-day.

"(All the injuries) have all been blows but you just got to keep going," Minnesota coach Kurt Rambis said. "Can't worry about it. Can't cry about it. Gives opportunities for other guys to step up and play and its part of the NBA team existence and we just have to move forward."

That’s what they’ll look to do Monday at Madison Square Garden for a date with the surging Knicks. Minnesota has covered only once on the road all season and will have their hands full with New York, especially as the injuries continue to pile up.

Pick: Knicks

Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks (+4, 184)

Sharp bettors knew early this season that it would take a while for the Miami Heat to come together. Unfortunately for Heat backers, that process is taking longer than a lot of people expected.

Some time on the road often brings teams closer together and that’s just what the Heat are hoping for when they head out on their first extended road trip of the season. The club has won four straight and LeBron James’ blowup with coach Erik Spoelstra is blowing over.

"I don't think the world was coming to an end," Chris Bosh told reporters. "We knew that we lost games that we were capable of winning. We were right there. And I think we were standing in our own way. Just to talk about it, it was needed. We needed to talk and kind of feel each other out and do the things off the court that really nobody sees in order to bring this team closer together and be more of a unit."

Miami will look to start this trip with a bang and Milwaukee will pay for it.

Pick: Heat

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ice picks: Monday's best NHL bets


San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings (-160, 5.5)

Detroit’s blueline pairings aren’t what Red Wings coach Mike Babock originally had in mind but he’s more than happy with the results coming from the combos of Nicklas Lidstrom-Brad Stuart, Jonathan Ericsson-Brian Rafalski and Niklas Kronwall-Ruslan Salei.

“I like this way better because I like the way the puck’s moving,” Babcock told Michigan Live. “I like the size with Nick and Raf. That’s important for us. All in all, it’s been positive.”

That’s an understatement. The Wings are 17-4-2-1 through their first 24 games, they own one of the best penalty kills in the hockey and they are one of the least penalized teams in the league.

The Wings are coming off a 3-2 overtime loss to the Kings so look for them to bounce back against the underachieving San Jose Sharks.

Pick: Wings

Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets (-125, 5.5)

These are strange days for the Dallas Stars. The club is 6-0 over its last six games and 8-2 over its last 10 but the rumor mill won’t stop churning out stories about All-Star center Brad Richards being shipped out of town.

Richards, a gifted play-making center with a Stanley Cup ring on his resume, is a unrestricted free agent this offseason and the Stars, who are trying to find a new ownership group, aren’t looking for any expensive, long-term deals to be signed.

The Stars are ignoring the off ice issues and are focused on their own play – as we saw in Saturday’s 4-3 overtime win over the Wild.

“There was a time last year when we probably didn’t respond the right way or didn’t have that mental toughness,” Stars captain Brenden Morrow told the Dallas Morning News. “But now it really seems like every guy on the bench is saying, ‘OK, I’m going to make the difference.’ And so far, somebody has.”

Pick: Stars

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tale of the tape: Jets vs. Patriots


Pats passing offense vs. Jets secondary

The Randy Moss/Wes Welker parade has ended in New England, and sweeping up the streets as the Patriots moves on is a variety of receivers that the Jets will have to contend with Monday night. It’s a dizzying array of quick slants, dump-offs and short sideline passes, all with the idea of softening up the secondary for the big strike later.

Tom Brady has targets galore. Rookie tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski were showcased early, but Gronkowski had a stretch early in the season in which he went four games with only 43 yards receiving; and Hernandez has only 26 yards combined in the last three games. Welker remains the No. 1 bulls-eye, but - with Deion Branch in the mix - Welker could go three quarters without a catch.

The Jets’ secondary has been lauded for its play in victories over the Patriots in New York in 2009 and this season, but in Foxboro last year Brady threw for 299 yards in a 31-14 drubbing of NY. Look for three-step drops from Brady in an attempt to neutralize Jets’ pass rush and force cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie to make tackle after tackle rather than let them fight Pats receivers for the ball in medium-range passes.

And don’t underestimate the loss of safety Jim Leonard. He makes the reads and calls for the Jets DBs and won’t be easily replaced.

Edge: Pats

Pats rushing vs. Jets front seven

Have the Patriots been holding out Fred Taylor just for this game? The veteran has been practicing for a few weeks and was even activated – but didn’t play – against the Lions on Thanksgiving. Taylor says his injured toe is fine, and it might be interesting to see if he gets the call this week to soften up and slow down New York’s front line. Taylor is also excellent at picking up blitzes, which is vital to New England’s offense.

New York defenders hit Brady 23 times when the Jets won in New York in 2009, and pressure on the quarterback in the second half of Week 2 this season left Brady frustrated and the Jets with a victory. The Jets had no trouble with BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the first meeting this season (10 carries, 19 yards), but Bill Belichick loves the law firm because BJGE does not put the ball on the ground.

It might be a little easier to run left with guard Logan Mankins in the lineup, and that would have the side benefit of slowing the rush from Brady’s blind side.

Edge: Jets

Jets passing vs. Pats secondary

Belichick has earned his chops over the last decade confusing opposing young quarterbacks, but ever so slowly Mark Sanchez is putting the pieces together in his game. Sanchez no longer freaks out when he sees five or six defensive defensive backs, which the Patriots will likely show him on down-and-distance situation. The Patriots love to take away what the opposition does best and force opponents to win with its 1A game, but Sanchez’s growth as a QB is making that more and more dicey.

Toss in the confidence gained from leading the team to three straight improbable victories (Detroit, Cleveland and Houston), and relying on Sanchez to lose the game on his own becomes less and less likely.

New England’s young defense employs a playing-with-matches strategy and gives up more yards through the air than any team in the league, forcing teams to go on long marches before stiffening inside the 35.

Edge: Jets

Jets rushing vs. Pats front seven

There’s been a subtle shift in New York’s ground game. Shonne Greene has started the last three games in place of LaDainian Tomlinson, and while Tomlinson is still getting touches, they are fewer (25 total in the last two games) than earlier in the season.

Tomlinson had a bust-out (11 carries, 76 yards) game against New England in the first meeting this season, but truth be told the Patriots have never had much respect for LT, who turtled so often against the Patriots in the playoffs when he was with the Chargers.

New England’s read-and-react disciplined defensive philosophy helps fill gaps and makes running the ball difficult, but the price is paid because it allows QBs an extra split second to make decisions and puts added pressure on the secondary.

Edge: Jets

Pats special teams vs. Jets special teams

If Belichick hadn’t already sold his soul to the devil several times over, he would do so now for the type of special teams effort the Pats turned in against the Dolphins when Miami could barely get off punts. The Jets are more fundamentally sound, though, and NE will be content to turn in a mistake-free game.

Shayne Graham is 4 for 4 on field goals (one missed PAT) as replacement for injured Stephen Gostkowski; NY’s Nick Folk bears watching – he has missed 5 of his last 11 attempts.

NE’s Brandon Tate has speed and two kickoff returns for TDs, but he has faded of late. Two things about special teams – New York has a history of cutting players after a single mistake, and NE often uses its regular on kickoff coverage.

Edge: Pats

What the reporters are saying:

Darrelle Revis won’t be tethered to the hip of one Patriots receiver; it is very likely that he’ll line up opposite both Deion Branch and Wes Welker, and perhaps even tight end Aaron Hernandez.

“We’ll see," said Jets coach Rex Ryan. “I have a feeling that he’s going to get an opportunity to cover a lot of different people."

Final score prediction: New England 31, NY Jets 24

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday Night Debate: Who'll cover the spread?


It's being called the game of the NFL regular season and it pits two 9-2 teams against each other with the AFC East title and home field in the playoffs at stake. We called in some big gun bloggers to help us break it down.

Jets Breakdown


Matt Birch is a degenerate gambler like the rest of us. When he's not betting on NFL football, he's writing for the fantastic Jets blog, Gang Green Nation.

A lot has changed – for both teams – since the Pats and Jets last played. Randy Moss is gone, Logan Mankins is back and the Pats offense is rolling. The Jets have a healthy Darrelle Revis but it’s their offense that really seems to be the most improved. Do you think this game could be a shootout?

Each team has favorable matchups in the other’s secondary that they will be looking to exploit. The Jets’ top two wide receivers, especially Santonio Holmes, will be matched up against young defensive backs that can beaten. The Patriots, though, can attack the Jets nickel back and safeties as both have been very susceptible in pass coverage this year.

I think the Jets will begin the game looking to establish the run and control the tempo of the game, but I could definitely see the game opening up and becoming a track meet by the start of the second half.

The Jets seem to have an embarrassment of riches in terms of playmakers on offense. Besides Mark Sanchez, who’s the one player who means the most to the Jets’ offensive attack?

Without a doubt, it’s RB LaDainian Tomlinson. L.T. started off the season with a bang; and in his first five games, averaged at least 4.5 yards per carry in each one. Since then, his yards have tapered off and his carries have been cut back a bit. The Jets said their plan all along was to keep him fresh for the postseason by increasing RB Shonn Greene’s touches as the season progressed.

Still, Tomlinson is a big threat in the screen game catching passes out of the backfield. He also came up big in the Cleveland and Houston games late, allowing the Jets to get into striking range and hit Holmes for game-winning touchdowns in both.

He rushed for 6.9 yards per carry in the first game against New England. We like L.T., to make his touches count on Monday night.

The Patriots offensive line seems to be in a much better place now that Logan Mankins is back. Brady has been only sacked twice in the last two games and his young tight ends – along with Wes Welker – are fantastic hot reads any time opposing defenses blitz. Still, Rex Ryan is Rex Ryan and he’s going to bring the heat. Does this game come down to who wins on 3rd down – the Pats offense or the Jets defense?

In a sense, yes. I think this game will be won or lost on key downs: third down as well as red zone conversions.

New England has been very efficient on third downs this year; mainly because they do a good job of putting Tom Brady in “3rd and manageable downs.” They also do a great job of using tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in key spots as safety valves on third down and in the red zone.

One of the areas the Jets must get better in is red zone scoring percentage. They are allowing opponents to score 56.7 percent of the time, and they rank No. 22 in NFL. New England’s offense is very good when they get deep, as they score 61.4 percent of time and rank No. 5.

As you mentioned Brady’s weapons around him are built for hot reads and to allow him to get the ball out of his hands quickly to counter the blitz. We both know the Jets will be bringing the pressure on Monday night – something’s got to give.

What’s the one matchup (offense or defense) you expect the Jets to try to exploit against New England?

Hands down, WR Santonio Holmes vs. rookie CB Devin McCourty. While McCourty has good closing speed, his burst is not great and he can be beat by vertical routes. If the Jets can run the football effectively, they will be able to really exploit this matchup because McCourty is much better in zone coverage than playing man.

Holmes is a game-changer. In two of the last three games, he has caught “walk-off” touchdowns to lead the Jets to a pair of victories. I like him to have a big game on Monday night, and he’ll be starting for my Fantasy Football team as well.

Final score prediction: Jets 24, Pats 23

Patriots Breakdown


Russ Loede is part of the team at the Gab network of blogs. You can read his opinions regularly at the New England team blog PatriotsGab.com.

The Jets offense is much better than it was the last time the Pats faced them. Do you think New England’s secondary has improved to the point that it can keep all the Jets’ weapons in check?

I think so. Rookie Devin McCourty is playing like a seasoned vet, producing five interceptions in the past six games. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in Hawaii come January. McCourty, along with safeties Meriweather and Chung, are playmakers who not only possess the ball hawk skills to make plays, but the instincts to make quick reads on the ball.

All of the Patriots' defensive backs have closing speed and talent was never a question. Now that they have added the smarts to their athletic gifts, this group has the makings of a Super Bowl caliber defense; one that can compliment Tom Brady and the offense.

With the Jets, you have to limit their yards after the catch. I think this plays right into the hands of the Patriots secondary, because they have a solid tackling unit. They cover ground and are very rangy; which is vital, when defending the Jets weapons.

Intangibles are steadily progressing, and the sky’s the limit for this collection of budding cover guys. Mark Sanchez’s “Fran Tarkenton-esque” escape ability is the only thing the secondary has to be concerned about.

Is Danny Woodhead the new Kevin Faulk and if he is – is there anything he does better than Faulk?

Woodhead brings more to the table, and offers a game-changing - something Faulk never exclusively offered. The Chardon State standout is already a much better runner in between the tackles and has shown better vision than Faulk ever displayed during his career.

Woodhead has a knack to break tackles and find room when it seems like there is no room to be found. He adds another dimension as the Patriots new 3rd down back, whereas Faulk, was more of a one-trick pony. Woodhead is multi-faceted and whether it be receiving or rushing, his versatility is always on display; making Tom Brady and the offense that much more difficult to contain.

How do you think Bill Belichick will game plan for all of Rex Ryan’s blitz packages?

No surprises here: quick passes, draws and delays, play-action. Wes Welker and Deion Branch will be the main beneficiaries, along with Woodhead and Aaron Hernandez on the short routes. The draws and delays will keep the Jets defense honest and set-up the play-action pass. The emergence of BenJarvus Green-Ellis allows this to happen.

The key to Ryan’s defense is its aggressiveness. I have a feeling Brady will make the over-zealous defense pay with audibles and timely throws to get his receivers out into space. Since Week 6 against Baltimore, Brady has thrown 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

He's playing MVP ball and the best I’ve seen from him since ’07. His accuracy coupled with the plethora of above-average receivers he has to throw to, will make the Jets defense look rather ordinary on Monday night.

The game plan will be simple: challenge the Jets linebackers in the open field, and tease them with the run to set-up play action.

Which matchup (on offense or defense) do you think the Pats will try to exploit against the Jets the most often?

Aaron Hernandez cannot be covered by a Jets linebacker and Rob Gronkowski cannot be covered by a Jets safety. The rookie tight ends will be utilized extensively in trying to create mismatches, while preventing the Jets from blitzing more than they would like.

Final score prediction: Patriots 34, Jets 24

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jets at Pats: What bettors need to know


New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3.5, 45)

Current Odds

The Patriots briefly opened as a -3 -120 favorite last week, but the majority of sportsbooks around the world opened the line at -3.5 where it currently stands. A few of the more “public” sportsbooks have risen to -4 as 62 percent of the public is favoring the Patriots according to the Covers.com consensus.

The over/under line opened at 47 total points but has since dropped down to 45 and 44.5 in most locations. Despite 58 percent of the public favoring the over on the Covers.com consensus, the total has dropped mainly due to weather concerns.

There is only a 20 percent chance of precipitation during the game on Monday night and 16 mph winds are expected during the game. The kickoff temperature will be a cold 30-degrees and it will feel like 20-degrees with the wind chill.

Injury Report

The Jets could be a bit thin in the secondary tonight as strong safety Jim Leonhard has been lost for the rest of the season due to a shin injury, while cornerbacks Dwight Lowery and Marquice Cole are both listed as questionable.

New England running back Fred Taylor is probable to return tonight after missing the past eight games due to a toe injury. Defensive tackles Myron Pryor and Mike Wright are both questionable, along with defensive back Jarrad Page.

Big Rivalry Game

New England has formed some heated rivalries over the last 10 years or so, but the biggest game for the Patriots has always been against the Jets. The Patroits have always viewed their games with the Jets as their biggest of the regular season. And former Patriots player Teddy Bruschi sheds some light as to just how important this game is to New England.

”Throughout my career, with all the rivalries -- Steelers, Colts, Jets -- I always felt it more coming from the coaches during Jets week,” former Patriot Teddy Bruschi said this week. “That’s all the way back to Bill Parcells’ years, when Al Groh was here, the whole drama of Belichick being the 'HC of the NYJ' for one day and when Eric Mangini was here. You could feel the tension and motivation that coaches had to win this game when it was against the Jets.

“This may go back to when the coaches had ties. They coached you harder. When they were in front of you in defensive meetings, there was urgency in their voices. Against the Jets, it was more of an organization versus another organization, and we really felt that.”

Trend Reversal

Bruschi’s comments appear to be spot on. The Patriots dominated the Jets prior to the last two seasons. New England had won 11 of 12 games against the Jets during one stretch. But that trend has revered itself as the Jets have won three of the last four meetings between these two teams, including a 28-14 victory back in Week 2 this season.

It’s no coincidence that the Jets started to beat the Patriots once Rex Ryan took over. If you remember his introductory press conference when he got the Jets job, Ryan made bold statements and comments about New England. Ryan said he wasn’t there to “kiss Bill Belichick’s rings.”

And Ryan was talking again this week.

“The Patriots can say whatever they want, come Monday night they are going to have to deal with us,” he said. “They can be sarcastic, they can be nonchalant, but we believe in each other, and we're prepared for what’s going to take place. We are the men for the job.”

Jet Down

The Jets lost their key cog in the secondary to a freak injury during practice on Friday. While cornerback Darrelle Revis gets all of the attention, Jim Leonhard is the defensive quarterback in charge of calling the plays and making sure everybody is aligned properly. He’s also the Jets leading punt returner.

His loss is a big one, and Ryan is doing his best to say his team will be fine without him on the field.

“We’re about the team. It’s not always about an individual,” Ryan said. “Guys will step up. We feel sorry for Jim, but we don't feel sorry for ourselves. We are ready to play.”

That is a lot of confidence from Ryan considering the Patriots have one of the best passing attacks in the league. Tom Brady has an incredible 23-4 TD to INT ratio this season, so we’ll see if the Jets will miss Leonhard or not on Monday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors' best friend (BBF): Monday's wagering tips


Lines to watch

The total for Monday's Jets-Pats game has dropped as low as 44.5 at some books after opening at 47 points.

Weather to watch

New York Jets at New England Patriots – 15 mph winds expected.

Who’s hot

NBA: New York Knicks have covered in nine of their last 10.

NBA: Los Angeles Clippers have covered in five of their last six.

NHL: Dallas Stars have won six in a row.

NHL: Pittsburgh Penguins have nine straight wins.

Who’s not

NBA: Milwaukee Bucks have covered just once over the last nine games.

NBA: Atlanta Hawks have dropped three straight against the spread.

NHL: Columbus Blue Jackets have lost consecutive games.

Key stat

50.4 – percentage of passes opposing quarterback are completing against the New York Jets, with no quarterback cracking the 60-percent mark. Tom Brady completed 20 of his 36 passes (55 percent) against the Jets when New York downed the Pats 28-14 as a 3-point underdog in Week 2.

Injury that shouldn't be overlooked

Dwight Lowery (concussion), New York Jets - The New York corner back is listed as questionable for Monday night's game, but present speculation is that he will suit up. With safety Jim Leonhard on the injured reserve with a fractured tibia, the Jets need all healthy hands on deck in the secondary.

Game of the day

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3.5, 45)

Notable quotable

“There are very few coaches that I steal from; Bill Belichick is one of them. So creative, what he does coverage-wise, how he looks at things, puts traps out there. Guy's an amazing coach. The best coach in football; it's not even close. That's the guy that I will study. Each week, I'll just pop their tape on to see what he's doing because he is creative, he's smart.” – Jets coach Rex Ryan on Pats coach Bill Belichick.

Notes and tips

A stomach virus is ravaging the Orlando Magic roster. Four Magic players returned home to Florida while the team was getting ready for Saturday’s game in Milwaukee. Dwight Howard and Mickael Pietrus left the team on Friday, while Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick headed back to Orlando Saturday and were to meet with team doctor Vince Wilson.

Sacramento Kings point guard Tyreke Evans says he needs to look for his own shot more to help the Kings’ offense. He scored 25 points and added eight boards and five assists in a 105-103 loss to the Mavericks as 7-point underdogs on Saturday, which was the first time the Kings covered the number in six games. Evans had been held below 20 points in six straight before that game, but he said after the game that he knows he needs to score for Sacramento’s offense.

The San Jose Sharks are shaking up their top line in preparation of Monday's tilt with the Detroit Red Wings. With just three wins in their last nine games, coach Todd McLellan dropped Patrick Marleau from the top line and put Torrey Mitchell in his place with Joe Thornton and Dany Heatley. Marleau will likely skate with Joe Pavelski and Jamie McGinn.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL NFL

MONDAY, DECEMBER 6
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (12/1)
Game 369-370: NY Jets at New England (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 134.974; New England 139.488
Dunkel Line: New England by 4 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NFL

Monday, December 6, 2010
NEW ENGLAND 27, N.Y. Jets 23

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DOUBLE DRAGON NFL

PATRIOTS -3 (-120) vs jets (MNF)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3.5)

Why Jets cover: They're 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings in New England. The road team is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings.

Why Patriots cover: They have won 25 straight home games with Tom Brady as the starting quarterback. Mark Sanchez continues to battle inconsistency.

Total (46): Over is 6-0 in the Jets' last six road games and 5-1 in the Patriots' last six home games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Colin Cowherd ESPN

New England -



1-2 on sunday

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Reporter Midweek Update:

Best Bet Total Under 46 Jets/N.E.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HONDO

jets

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JASON SHARPE
NFL: Week 13


MONDAY PLAY
5 UNIT*New York Jets +3.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ferringo

2 UNIT* NY Jets UNDER 45.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sixth Sense

NEW ENGLAND -3.5 NY Jets 45

NEW ENGLAND 27 NY JETS 24

 

[boogiedownbronx]

francesa wfan & miked up


JETS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

OUTLAW SPORTS ADVISORS

MONDAY'S PLAY-DECEMBER 6th:
$200* 8:00PM - MIAMI HEAT -4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NHL

12/06/10 Predictions
Season: 123-88 (.583)

PITTSBURGH 3, New Jersey 2
WASHINGTON 4, Toronto 2
Nashville vs. ATLANTA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Dallas vs. COLUMBUS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DETROIT 4, San Jose 2